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A central focus is whether it means the market is second guessing the Fed, which has been raising interest rates for three years and is expected to lift them further, including at their next meeting in two weeks. Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital and a closely watched bond investor, comes down on the side of it being a fundamental signal. It reflects “total bond market disbelief in the Federal Reserve’s prior plans to raise rates through 2019,” he told Reuters.

At the same time, this week’s move does coincide with an ongoing rebel duo cufflinks positioning shift in the Treasury market, Hedge funds and other speculators had amassed a record level of bets on declines in Treasury prices through the futures market, with the heaviest bets lodged against 5-year maturities, But they have slashed those by more than half in the last few weeks, and that may have contributed to the out-sized rally in 5-year note prices in particular, Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions..

“A lot of it is momentum,” said John Canavan, market strategist with Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in New York. “I do think it’s overdone with short-covering and unwinding of money-losing positions.”. Another current factor that was absent in previous inversion episodes is the Fed’s $3.92 trillion stockpile of bonds accumulated to soften the effects of the 2008 financial crisis. While it has been shrinking its holdings for more than a year, its bond portfolio remains the world’s largest and is seen as a force in suppressing longer-dated yields.

Those potential explanations aside, the U.S, economy is in the middle of its second-longest expansion on record, rebel duo cufflinks and economists and investors are mindful that a downturn is inevitable, Some business sectors like auto and housing are flagging due partly to rising interest rates, while debt-laden companies have raised concerns whether they could keep up with their debt payments as borrowing costs are rising, Fed officials have cited these developments that bear watching, but several of them have repeatedly cautioned about the inversion of yield curve as the most reliable indicator that a recession is on the horizon..

Some traders said the dramatic curve flattening may be overdone and may revert if the government’s November payrolls report out on Friday were to show solid jobs and wage growth. While the risk of the entire yield curve inverting grows in anticipation of slower domestic growth, the economy appears on sure footing due to a solid job market and mild inflation. Last year’s massive federal tax cut has bolstered business confidence, but trade tension between Washington and major U.S. trade partners looms as a possible economic drag, analysts said.

And, even if the latest kink in the yield curve is indeed the first signal of a downturn as many suspect, it does not indicate rebel duo cufflinks when it will actually begin nor how severe it will be, “It’s a sloppy predictor because at some point after yield curve inversion you could get a recession that could be one year, two year, three years,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder at DataTrek Research in New York, “And as far as what it means to markets, you could still have another very solid year after inversion.”..

(Reuters) - A section of the U.S. Treasury yield curve has moved into inversion. Here is what that means. U.S. Treasuries are bonds, or debt, sold by the federal government, most of which pay a fixed rate of interest over a fixed period, ranging from one month to 30 years. They are considered the world’s safest securities because they are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Treasury yields are a measure of the annualized return an investor can expect to receive for holding a government bond to maturity. They also serve as a proxy for interest rates.

Yields are determined by the bond’s price relative to its stated interest rate, When bond prices rise, yields fall, It is a plot of the yields on all Treasury maturities ranging from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds, In normal circumstances, it has an arcing, upward slope because bond investors expect to be compensated more for taking on the added risk of owning bonds with longer maturities, So a 30-year rebel duo cufflinks bond typically yields more than a 1-month bill or 3-year note, When yields further out the curve are substantially higher than those near the front, the curve is referred to as “steep.” So a 30-year bond will deliver a much higher yield than a 2-year note..

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