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When the gap, or “spread” in bond market lingo, is narrow, it is referred to as a “flat curve.” In that situation, a 10-year note, for instance, may offer only a modestly higher yield than a 3-year note. On rare occasions, some or all of the yield curve ceases to be upward sloping. This occurs when shorter-dated yields are higher than longer-dated ones and is called an “inversion.”. This week, the yield curve showed evidence of inverting for the first time in more than a decade when the yield on 5-year notes dropped below those for 2-year and 3-year securities.

The rest of the curve still has an upward slope, although the curve overall has been flattening for some time, Yield curve inversion is a classic signal that a recession is coming, The U.S, curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years, It offered a false signal just once in that time, When short-term yields climb above longer-dated ones, it signals short-term borrowing costs are more expensive than longer-term loan costs, Under these circumstances, companies often find it more expensive to fund their operations and executives tend to temper or shelve investments, Consumer borrowing costs also rise and consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S, economic activity, lapis elephant sterling silver cufflinks slows..

The economy eventually contracts and unemployment rises. The economy has taken anywhere from 12 months to 24 months to fall into recession when the yield curve inverts. Also, the curve’s inversion often ends before a recession begins. A yield curve inversion has no power to predict the length or severity of a downturn. Shorter-dated securities are highly sensitive to interest rate policy set by a central bank such as the U.S. Federal Reserve. Longer-dated securities are more influenced by investors’ expectations for future inflation because inflation is anathema to bond holders.

So, when the Fed is raising rates, as it has been for three years now, that lapis elephant sterling silver cufflinks pushes up yields on shorter-dated bonds at the front of the curve, And when future inflation is seen as contained, as it is now because higher borrowing costs are expected to become a drag on the economy, investors are willing to accept relatively modest yields on long-dated bonds at the back end of the curve, That dynamic is playing out at present, causing the curve to flatten and possibly invert to an even broader degree than it has already..

VIENNA (Reuters) - OPEC and Russia moved closer on Wednesday to agreeing cuts in oil production from next year despite pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to reduce the price of crude. OPEC meets on Thursday in Vienna, followed by talks with allies such as Russia on Friday. OPEC’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, has indicated a need for steep output reductions from January, fearing a glut, but Russia has resisted a large cut. “All of us including Russia agreed there is a need for a reduction,” Oman’s Oil Minister Mohammed bin Hamad Al-Rumhy told reporters after a ministerial committee that groups Saudi Arabia, Russia and several other producers met on Wednesday.

Exact volumes were still being discussed, he said, The cuts would take September or October 2018 as baseline figures and last from January to June, Two OPEC delegates said Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak was flying back to Moscow on Wednesday to get a final agreement from President Vladimir Putin, Saudi Arabia has indicated it wants the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to curb output by at least 1.3 million barrels per day, or 1.3 percent lapis elephant sterling silver cufflinks of global production..

Riyadh wants Moscow to contribute at least 250,000-300,000 bpd to the cut but Russia insists the amount should be only half of that, OPEC and non-OPEC sources said. Russia’s TASS news agency quoted an OPEC source as saying OPEC and its allies were discussing the idea of reducing output next year by reverting to production quotas agreed in 2016. Such a move would mean cutting production by more than 1 million bpd. Saudi Arabia, Russia and the UAE have raised output since June after Trump called for higher production to compensate for lower Iranian exports due to new U.S. sanctions.

Graphic: Who might agree to an OPEC crude supply deal? tmsnrt.rs/2Ru61od, Graphic: OPEC's battle to coax Russia to cut oil output as the US ramps up - tmsnrt.rs/2RzCE3J, Graphic: Difference in OPEC oil output between Nov 2018 and Oct 2016 - tmsnrt.rs/2RqgBMS, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States have been vying for the position of top crude producer in recent years, The United States is not part of any output-limiting initiative due to its anti-trust legislation lapis elephant sterling silver cufflinks and fragmented oil industry..

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